Even if it is impossible to know the winner of a race before its arrival, we can however make predictions. To do so, we can rely on the track record of the skippers who make up the duo, on the boat's track record or on the complicity between the two sailors. But, let's not forget the weather factors, the technical hazards, the strategic options or even the fortunes of the sea, which can change the ranking.
Four boats to watch in Class40, but Le Conservateur favorite
Among the Class40s, the level is fairly homogeneous, so it is on the osmosis between the two sailors on deck and the boat that the difference can be made. And in this game, it is Le Conservateur (Yannick Bestaven and Pierre Brasseur) which seems, from a potential point of view, a little above Bretagne Crédit Mutuel Elite (Nicolas Troussel and Corentin Horeau), Teamwork40 (Bertrand Delesne-Nils Palmieri) or Solidaires en peloton ARSEP (Thibault Vauchel Camus-Victorien Erussard).
We will also have to watch the Jason Ker plan of Jack Bouttell and Gildas Mahé, Team Concise who already impressed two years ago before abandoning the race due to technical problems.
Among the Class40s, there are also the latest generation Class40s - Eärendil (Catherine Pourre, Antoine Carpentier) and VandB (Maxime Sorel-Sam Manuard) -, but with recent launches, their skippers will not have had the time to fine-tune their preparation and training on board.
The seven other competitors will certainly have a hard time keeping up, especially if the crosswind, which is statistically the majority on this course, is present, either because the boat is too old, or because the crew has not accumulated enough miles on board: Carac-Advanced Energies (Louis Duc-Christophe Lebas), Club 103 (Alan Roura-Juliette Pêtrès), Concise 2 (Philippa Hutton Squire-Pip Hare), Créno Moustache solitaire (Thibault Hector-Morgan Launay), Groupe Sétin (Manuel Cousin-Gérald Quéouron), SNBSM Espoir Compétition (Valentin Lemarchand-Arthur Hubert), Zetra (Eduardo Penido-Renato Araujo).
The "sworn enemies" in the Multi50
In the Multi50s, there are only four duos, including Arkema (Lalou Roucayrol and César Dohy) and FenêtréA Prysmian (Erwan Le Roux and Giancarlo Pedote), who are used to ocean battles. FenêtréA-Prysmian is the title holder and Erwan Le Roux has been sailing it since its launch in 2009. But Arkema has been optimized and now, the differences in potential are very small and it will be tactically that the duos will have to try to stand out.
There are also two other crews who are also looking to win. Even if La French Tech-Rennes Saint-Malo has never succeeded in winning (with the exception of the 2010 Route du Rhum with Lionel Lemonchois), the crew has enough to shake the certainties with Gilles Lamiré, regularly on the podium, supported by Yvan Bourgnon back from a single-handed round-the-world trip on a sports catamaran.
Finally, Ciela Village is a newcomer among the nautical partners, but the trimaran has accumulated miles since its launch ten years ago. With new floats from FenêtréA-Prysmian's molds, the ex-Crêpe Whaou 2 has more than enough arguments in terms of performance. And if the crew Thierry Bouchard-Olivier Krauss discovers the world of the multihull, its experience and its rigor in Class40 are an asset.
In the Imoca class, the war between old and new prototypes
The Imoca Class will be the major class in this Transat Jacques Vabre. And since the new rules allowed foils, the IMOCA 60' monohulls have been buzzing with innovation and research on these appendages. The old boats have been seriously optimized while the new ones will have to prove themselves, with the Coffee Route serving as a research laboratory. The results will be taken into account, but above all each meteorological phase will be analyzed, because at the end of this event, there will certainly be major work to be done, for the prototypes, as well as for the old ones.
On paper, the one with the best chance of winning is none other than the defending winner, PRB, in the hands of Vincent Riou and Sébastien Col.) It is the lightest of the fleet, but without doubt the most versatile of all. We will also have to count on SMA, which is one of the "old hands" and is none other than the former Vendée Globe winner, this time in the hands of Paul Meilhat and Michel Desjoyeaux. We will also have to keep an eye on his two quasi-sisterships, Maître CoQ (Jérémie Beyou-Philippe Legros) and Bastide-Otio (Kito de Pavant-Yann Régniau) who have arguments on this course they know well, as well as Quéguiner-Leucémie Espoir (Yann Eliès-Charlie Dalin) which remains the reference of the current IMOCA boats.
Among the "new" boats, it is clear that the development time for these hydrofoil machines has been very short for some of them, such as ST-Michel-Virbac (Jean-Pierre Dick-Fabien Delahaye), Hugo Boss (Alex Thomson-Guillermo Altadill) and Safran (Morgan Lagravière-Nicolas Lunven). The two most successful boats to date seem to be Banque Populaire VIII (Armel Le Cléac'h-Erwan Tabarly) and Edmond de Rothschild (Sébastien Josse-Charles Caudrelier), but the first few days of the race should be dominated by crosswind sailing�
Finally, the 2006-2008 generation still has arguments if the weather is scabrous by opening up strategic fields that are wider than this 5,400-mile course oriented North-East-South-West would suggest: Bureau Vallée (Louis Burton-Romain Attanasio), Comme un seul Homme (Éric Bellion-Sam Goodchild), Adopteunskipper.net (Nicolas Boidevézi-Ryan Breymaier), Initiatives-Coeur (Tanguy de Lamotte-Sam Davies), Le Bateau des métiers by Aérocampus (Arnaud Boissières-Stan Maslard), Le Souffle du Nord (Thomas Ruyant-Adrien Hardy), MACSF (Bertrand de Broc-Marc Guillemot), Newrest-Matmut (Fabrice Amédéo-Éric Péron) can all be surprised in Itajaí. O Canada (Eric Holden-Morgen Watson) and Spirit of Hungary (Nandor Fa-Péter Perényi) have little chance of making the top five.
A favorite in the Ultimates
The Ultime class, with only four giant trimarans with very different profiles, is undoubtedly the easiest class to define. As far as the potential of the "machine" is concerned, it is Sodebo Ultim that wins the vote: the ex-Geronimo was seriously updated for the last Route du Rhum and confirmed that it was one of the most powerful and fastest in the world. Moreover, the Thomas Coville-Jean Luc Nélias tandem crossed the Atlantic twice this summer and the multihull was well optimized last winter.
On her sides, the brand new Macif still lacks sailing experience, even if François Gabart and Pascal Bidegorry are very experienced in multihulls. And she also lacks a foil, as the lead time for its completion has been too long. It is above all a validation test, even if the duo still has the possibility of getting into the race if there is a strategic opening.
With three years of experience, Lionel Lemonchois knows his 24-meter ORMA trimaran like the back of his hand, and his teammate Roland Jourdain has just completed a summer campaign aboard the former Groupama 3. It will be the reduced size of Prince de Bretagne, a multihull that is more volatile and demanding than its competitors, that will hinder its performance: formidable in light airs, it is less at ease in the breeze.
Finally, it is more the late start of Actual which is a disadvantage for this 4x4 designed for the solo round the world race. The ex-Sodebo is more at ease in the gliding phases than against the wind or on the beam, but the tandem Yves Le Blévec-Jean-Baptiste Le Vaillant has a rare experience of this type of multihullâeuros¦
