Volvo Ocean Race 2017-18, who will win?


The start of the 10th leg of this 13th edition of the Volvo Ocean Race was held on Sunday 10th June 2018. The seven crews at the start in Cardiff have some very serious challenges ahead of them, as three of them are in with a chance of claiming first place on the podium... A close match between Dongfeng Race Team, MAPFRE and Team Brunel, the three contenders for the throne... In the meantime, the fleet remains grouped together with less than 10 miles between the first the Spaniards of MAPFRE and the last, Vestas 11th Hour Racing heading to Gothenburg, Sweden.

A decisive step

The start of the 10th leg of the Volvo Ocean Race 2018 edition was given this Sunday 10th June. 1,300 miles between Cardiff (Wales) and Gothenburg in Sweden, which is about half of the circumnavigation of the British Isles, with an ascent along Wales to reach the northern tip of Scotland, and a descent into the North Sea towards southern Norway and an easterly course to Gothenburg.

The penultimate stage of the crewed round the world race with stopovers is decisive for the rest of the race as only 3 points separate the top three in the general ranking ... The final verdict will only be handed down in 3 weeks time in The Hague - where the last In-port will take place (no impact on the general ranking except in the event of a tie) on 30th June. The pressure is therefore at its height among the crews and the winner could well be known before then...

In addition to first place - for which Dongfeng Race Team, Team Brunel and MAPFRE are fighting - a podium finish is still mathematically possible for Team AkzoNobel and a duel for sixth place between Sun Hung Kai/Scallywag and Turn the Tide on Plastic.

A duel... on three

But let's get back to the top trio and in particular the current leader - Dongfeng Race Team - whose skipper Charles Caudrelier has been questioned a lot during this Welsh stopover: pressure, strategy in the face of not one - but two - competitors... Team Brunel is the strongest team of the moment after its latest victories: victories in Itajaí and Cardiff, second place in Newport.

"Earlier in the race, we may have been a little too playful with MAPFRE. Now there's another boat involved in the match. We just need to sail as best we can and see what happens. Maybe after this tenth leg we'll have to control one of our rivals, but right now our lead is too small to think about." said the winner of the 2004 Solitaire du Figaro on Saturday about the strategy to be followed.

Charles Caudrelier acknowledges that "the pressure is at its peak", but for the time being, it is not a question of calculating, but of concentrating. " Now that Brunel is in the race, we can no longer focus solely on the other red boat. We have to stay ahead of both of them, so we have to do everything we can to win this leg."

Winning this stage would also be symbolic as the Franco-Chinese team has not yet won any stage victories. Finishing first in Gothenburg would therefore allow them to finally take this victory, but also to earn a bonus point (best cumulative time over the whole of the Volvo Ocean Race) in addition to the extra point of the stage winner. A big step towards final victory...

For his part, the Malouin Kevin Escoffier added: " I don't think there's any point in making too many plans on the comet... you have to sail as you know how, be good and then the result will come. We've sailed this way so far and we're in the lead with two stages to go, so if we sail the same way we'll stay in the lead all the way to the end. I'm convinced that we need to stay on our strengths, sail the same way, communicate well, make each other better, push ourselves to the limit... We've got 7 days of sailing left, which is less than the shortest stage we've done so far, so it's going to be a sprint!"

The weather

It was in a very light east-north-easterly wind that the fleet left Cardiff for the start of the race, which was expected to be without any major difficulties... Once past the Welsh coast, the fleet was able to accelerate during the first night thanks to a 15-20 knot northerly flow in the St. George's Channel between Wales and Ireland, which then weakened in the deviation of the Irish coast.

It's Tuesday morning, after the Fastnet has passed through during the night, that the first important decisions will have to be taken, explained by Christian Dumard, the race weather forecaster for the Great Circle company: " A low pressure system comes in from the west. Between the northerly flow in which they will be and the southerly flow which will arrive, there is a small ridge of high pressure. The challenge will be either to climb upwind along Ireland while waiting for this southerly flow to arrive, or to cross this ridge of high pressure to head west to find the switch to the south and set off again with a strong downwind breeze ."

In short, make more headway to get some wind or stick to a direct course in the hope that the southerly flow arrives as quickly as possible. The choice will be Cornelian, but whatever happens, nothing will be decided after passing the Shetlands to the north of Scotland, as the second part of the stage towards Scandinavia promises to be very complex and exciting!

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