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With every accident, the debate over modern ships starts all over again
All it takes is a dismasting, a damaged foil, a physical mishap, or a skipper forced to make a stopover for observers to have a field day. On social media, every new incident in the Route du Rhum reignites the debate over modern boats, which are deemed too sophisticated, too fragile, or too difficult to handle.
And the criticism isn?t always about the equipment. Special mention goes to Violette Dorange, who has to deal with a double whammy in some comments: doubts about her skills as a sailor and sexist remarks. As if a mishap were enough to judge a sailor?s competence, and as if gender had anything to do with a collision.
Behind these reactions lies a question: Did fewer boats break down, or do we simply tend to forget the retirements from previous editions?
To answer that, we need to set aside the comments for a moment and look at the results.
From 2010 to 2022, dropout rates varied widely
Comparing the raw number of dropouts makes little sense when the fleet has grown from 85 competitors in 2010 to 138 in 2022. The percentage of starters forced to withdraw provides an initial basis for comparison.
| Edition | Participants | Recorded Withdrawals | Dropout rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 85 | 14 | 16.5% |
| 2014 | 91 | 26 | 28.6% |
| 2018 | 123 | 42 | 34.1% |
| 2022 | 138 | 30 | 21.7% |
These figures call for some clarification: in 2022, 103 skippers were officially ranked at the finish. In addition to the 30 recorded withdrawals, five competitors were listed as unranked. The total proportion of unranked boats thus reached 25.4%. In 2018, two additional competitors finished after the time limit, bringing that rate to 35.8%.
The trend is far from linear. The dropout rate rose between 2010 and 2018, then fell sharply in 2022, despite a larger fleet.
Under these circumstances, it is difficult to argue that each new generation of ships discards more than the previous one.
A dropout doesn't necessarily mean a failure
Be careful, however, not to confuse these two metrics. The dropout rate does not measure the number of incidents.
A sailboat may tear a sail, lose its autopilot, or experience a steering problem, but then make repairs and continue its crossing. These incidents are no longer included in the statistics once the boat reaches Guadeloupe.
Conversely, an abandonment may result from a collision, a grounding, or an incident unrelated to the vessel?s normal operation. It does not necessarily indicate a design flaw.
To compare the reliability of sailboats, it would be necessary to compile a list of all damage incidents?including those repaired at sea?and then classify them by type: rigging, structure, appendages, electronics, or deck equipment.
Sports results do not provide this overview.
The First Three Days: A Different Take on the Statistics
It is often during the first 72 hours that a race?s reputation is forged. The boats set out from the English Channel, face their first low-pressure systems, and reports of damage sometimes come in at an astonishing rate.
In 2010, the first few days were marked by several withdrawals, notably those of Bertrand Quentin and Christine Monlouis. On November 3, Sidney Gavignet lost his trimaran Oman Air Majan following a structural failure followed by the loss of the mast. The accident occurred shortly after the 72-hour mark.
In 2014, the start of the race was particularly difficult. A retrospective analysis presented by race organizers in 2018 reported 12 retirements and 32 mechanical incidents after 72 hours.
For 2018, this same report from race management notes 5 officially recorded withdrawals and 28 equipment-related incidents after three days, out of 123 starters. However, many competitors have already returned to port to make repairs or wait for a better weather window. About 60 boats were then making port calls, though they were not necessarily out of the race.
In 2022, 4 dropouts were reported within the first 24 hours. Another tally recorded 8 after two days.
As of November 3, 2026, the third day of racing, the Route du Rhum has already seen at least 4 withdrawals out of 115 starters?3.5% of the fleet?a figure that is still provisional and does not include skippers who were forced to make a technical stop but are still in the race.
In 2014, the weather took a toll right from the start
The 2014 edition serves as a reminder of how much the conditions encountered can affect the bottom line.
Of the 91 competitors at the start, the fleet had to contend with difficult weather conditions as soon as it exited the English Channel. Among those who withdrew was Thomas Coville, whose trimaran collided with a cargo ship. It was a serious accident, but one that should not be cited as evidence of any inherent fragility of multihulls.
A total of 26 withdrawals were reported for this edition. While this is a high number, it does not, on its own, allow us to determine the proportion attributable to technical failures, collisions, and decisions made in response to sea conditions.
Vincent Lantin?s story provides an interesting counterexample. Despite computer and autopilot problems, the Class40 skipper managed to finish after making several stops. His boat sustained damage, but his name does not appear among the withdrawals.
In 2018, more than one-third of the competitors were not ranked
The 2018 edition had the highest number of dropouts among the four races analyzed: 42 dropouts out of 123 starters, plus two finishers who crossed the line after the time limit. The difficulties affected all categories. Two of the six Ultim boats withdrew, as did five of the 20 IMOCA boats and 18 of the 53 Class40 boats.
Older boats are not spared either. In the Rhum categories, 7 out of 17 monohulls and 9 out of 21 multihulls have withdrawn.
This point is worth emphasizing. Withdrawals are not limited to newer boats equipped with foils or projects focused on performance. It would be just as unwise to conclude that older boats are less reliable. Their condition, preparation, technical capabilities, and the conditions they encounter vary considerably.
In 2022, there were more participants but proportionally fewer dropouts
With 138 competitors, the 2022 Route du Rhum features the largest fleet among the four editions compared. However, the percentage of recorded dropouts has fallen to 21.7%.
However, the organization made a decision that is significant for this analysis: the start, originally scheduled for November 6, has been postponed to November 9 due to the weather forecast. This delay makes it impossible to quantify any damage that may have been avoided. It simply serves as a reminder that the two editions cannot be compared as if the skippers had faced the same conditions.
The race is not without its accidents. Antoine Magret withdrew after his Class40 ran aground near Batz Island. Kojiro Shiraishi was also forced to withdraw after a collision involving his IMOCA.
Despite these incidents, 103 sailors were placed at the finish. The non-placement rate is more than 10 points lower than in 2018.
This represents an improvement in performance. It does not necessarily mean an improvement of the same magnitude in the boats' reliability.
So, was it really better back then?
Between 2010 and 2022, the figures show no steady increase in dropouts. The 2018 race was particularly difficult, while the 2022 race had a proportionally better outcome, despite a record number of participants.
A closer look at the early days further qualifies this interpretation. Some races see a string of incidents right from the start, though not all of them immediately result in withdrawals. Others see their toll increase later in the race. Nostalgia tends to focus on the heroic finishes and forget the withdrawals. Social media, on the other hand, gives immediate visibility to every incident, often even before its causes are known.
In the meantime, a single shipwreck is not enough to condemn an entire generation of sailors, nor to hand out certificates of maritime competence from dry land.
